Forecast Verification

The probabilistic retroactive forecasts can be verified using a range of graphical techniques available from the Tools ~ Verification menu item. The forecasts for all locations / indices are pooled when calculating the results.

The following options are available:

• Reliability diagrams : a diagram is produced for each category, plus and additional one for the three categories combined;
• ROC diagram : curves are drawn for each of the three categories;
• Scores : various category-specific and overall probabilistic verification scores are calculated;
• Skill Maps : skill maps for the various probabilistic verification scores are plotted;
• Tendency Diagram ; a graph indicating unconditional biases in the forecast is drawn;
• Ranked-Hits Diagram ; a graph indicating the frequencies that the forecast with the highest, second highest, and lowest probabilities are drawn;
• Weather Roulette : a cumulative profits diagram and an effective interest rate diagram is drawn.

The results for the various verification procedures can be saved by right-clicking on the graphic. For further details see Tools - Verification .